The huge drop in oil prices in 2014 might have come as a shock to you, unless you saw it coming. Germany's win in the World Cup probably came as less of a shock. But in each case, if you could predict the future, you can make a lot of money while also strutting your smugness around at the next cocktail party. If that's your jam, then we assume you were among the hundreds of people who entered the New America 2014 Forecasting Contest. Alas, none of you have complete smug. No one got all 14 questions right. Heck, no one got 13, 12, 11 or 10 questions right. Only one person got 9 questions right, and we're still trying to find you, Matthias. Present yourself and we'll buy you dinner. For the rest of you, here's last year's questions with the right answers. It's a trip down memory lane. Of course, if all this year-end stuff leaves you nostalgic, look ahead with hope by reading this great piece looking ahead to 2015 from Andrés Martinez.
We've included the original questions so you can review your answers and Monday-morning quarterback your 2014 self in 2015.
The winner of the 2014 soccer World Cup played in Brazil will be a country whose official language is:
- Spanish
- Portuguese
- German
- English
- Other
Which item will be worth more at the close of business in 2014? (2013 year-end prices in parentheses)
- 1 share of Twitter ($63.65)
- 1 barrel of crude oil ($96.80, West Texas price)
- 1 pound of coffee ($110.85, ICE Coffee “C” Commodity)
- 100 euros ($136.52)
Which “B” city will appear more times in the print edition of The New York Times in 2014?
- Beijing
- Bogotá
- Berlin
- Beirut
Which number will be highest in 2014?
- Gold medals won by China in the Sochi Winter Olympics
- Oscars won by American Hustle
- Days the temperature exceeds 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Washington, D.C.
- Mentions of the word “progress” by Barack Obama at his State of the Union Address
Which of these events will happen in 2014?
- Republicans will win a majority of seats in the U.S. Senate
- Same-sex marriage will become legal in a majority of states
- The Seattle Seahawks will win the Super Bowl
- Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to Cuba
- None of the above
Apple, Exxon, Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway and PetroChina are among the world’s most valuable publicly-traded companies. Which one of these will see its share price appreciate the most, as a percentage, in 2014?
- Apple
- Exxon
- Microsoft
- Berkshire Hathaway
- PetroChina
In 2014, the stock market in which of these countries will post the best performance?
- The Netherlands
- South Africa
- Mexico
- Malaysia
As 2013 came to a close, Barack Obama’s presidential approval rating stood at 43%, according to the weekly Gallup tracking poll. On the eve of the 2014 midterm elections in November 2014, the president’s approval rating will stand at:
- 35% or lower
- 36 - 45%
- 46 - 55 %
- 56% or higher
Which of the following individuals will NOT hold their current job as head of government at the end of 2014?
- Bashar al-Assad of Syria
- Victor Yanukovych of Ukraine
- Jacob Zuma of South Africa
- Kim Jong Un of North Korea
- None of the above
What will grow the most in 2014?
- Russia’s 3rd quarter GDP (1.2% in 2013)
- Third-quarter sales of McDonald’s restaurants open at least 13 months (0.9% in 2013)
- Average weekly earnings in the U.S. from November 2013 to November 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (1.1% from November 2012 to 2013)
- The number of 3rd quarter passengers flown by United Airlines (technically, what airlines call “revenue passenger miles,” down 0.3% from 2012 to 2013)
The Democratic Party holds only six U.S. Senate seats representing states from the old Confederacy, its historic base. In the November 2014 midterm elections, 11 of these “Confederate” Senate seats are contested, including four of the six Democratic seats. After all the votes are tallied, how many Democratic Senators will represent the old Confederate states?
- 2
- 3-4
- 5-7
- 8 or more
Last February, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that 7 million individuals would sign up for private health insurance plans on the federal and state marketplaces before the open enrollment deadline on March 31, 2014. By the end of 2013, almost 2 million Americans had signed up. How many people will have signed up for healthcare by the deadline?
- Less than 4 million
- Between 4 and 6 million
- Between 6 and 8 million
- More than 8 million
Of the following musical artists nominated for the Grammy Award’s best album of the year, who will win?
- Sara Bareilles
- Daft Punk
- Kendrick Lamar
- Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
- Taylor Swift
Which superhero or monster film coming to a theater near you in 2014 will earn the most money at the box office its opening weekend?
- The Amazing Spiderman 2
- X-Men: Days of Future Past
- Transformers: Age of Extinction
- _Godzilla _
- I, Frankenstein
